Thursday, March 27, 2008

Delegate Math

Many of our dumbest pundits (Joe Scarborough, et al) sneer at the"the Math" of the Democratic nomination like it is some nerdy inconvenience. This analysis is the best I've seen that clearly demonstrates that it's over for Hillary. Shut up and sit down already.

I also wonder, and haven't seen much on this, if the money-raising is starting to dry up for her. I suspect it is, which will be another big factor in finally ending this bloodletting.

The best point in the analysis -- it's not close:

According to the best available count, Obama currently leads among pledged delegates 1,415.5 to 1,253.5, a margin of 162 with 18 delegates currently for Edwards and 566 left to be determined. In terms of percentages, this translates to Obama 52.7%--46.7% Clinton, with 82.6% reporting. In any other campaign, if a candidate led by 6% with 83% reporting, all major news outlets would project that candidate as the winner. 6.0% is greater than the margin by which Bill Clinton won the 1992 election, and also greater than the margin by which Republicans won the 2002 midterms. I don't know anyone who follows politics who considers those close campaigns.

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