The Rathole

Thomas Ricks is the military correspondent for the Washington Post who wrote one of the best books so far about Iraq, Fiasco. Today he has an update on the situation in Iraq in the Post and he pulls few punches. He is especially good on describing the viewpoint of the military where he has many contacts and sources.

The main point of the article is the disconnect between the time required to "win" in Iraq (years at best) and the time left in the political tolerance of the American people to continue to pour lives and treasure into Iraq (12-18 months at best). The conclusion is obvious if unstated: get the hell out now. Why sacrifice one more life for something that more and more American people are losing commitment to every day? The effort can't be sustained politically or militarily. We're sending National Guardsmen in for their second tours for god's sake. The Iraqis don't want us there now either since we have become occupiers and not liberators. Pull the plug NOW.

An official in Iraq warned that executing the new approach will take time -- perhaps more than Washington is willing to give. "Early signs are very encouraging -- huge drop in sectarian killings in Baghdad, return of thousands of refugee families," he said, speaking on the condition of anonymity so that he could be candid. "But there is no way we can defeat this insurgency by summer. I believe we can begin to turn the tide by then, and have an idea if we are doing it. To defeat it completely is a five-to-10-year project, minimum -- and rushing it along to meet a D.C. timeline is rushing to failure."

An Army officer who has served in Iraq and is now back in the United States summed up the situation by saying that "we are witnessing the throes . . . of a very messy divorce" between the politics of the war and the way it is being fought. The "kids" scarred by the breakup, he predicted, will be the Iraqi people and the U.S. Army and Marine Corps....

Yet, with a new approach underway in Baghdad, the Washington debate is largely irrelevant to the concerns of the soldier on the ground, said the Army officer who recently returned from Baghdad. "All the talk about pullouts, votes and budgets really doesn't mean much to that 18-year-old with his body armor driving across Iraq worried about IEDs," he said, referring to roadside bombs. "For him, life consists of trying to survive for 365 days to get back home -- only to know he'll have to come back again."